In times of economic upheaval/resets, labour does not find bargains, capital does.
Housing prices might take a hit, but by the time they pop up on the open market, you won't be buying from a distressed seller, but rather a numbered corporation domiciled in Delaware that's picked up all those properties in cash, cheap.
I thought about saying something snarky, but suffice to say I don't think that socks are a silicon valley invention, and I think you are at a major disadvantage to more flexible/savvy investors.
if everyone's expecting a market crash and prepared for it (that means it should already be priced in), how can there still end up being a crash? seems counter intuitive.
You know how risk is "priced in" right? It's an art, not a science. They buy/sell financial instruments to hedge that risk, like collateralized bonds or credit default swaps. Plenty of people lose big money when these bets don't work out.
Not everyone. The options markets are much thinner than the stock market as a whole; it takes fewer people to move them.
Also, it costs much less to buy an out-of-the-money option than the value of the option. You can buy cheap insurance against catastrophe, and not unwind your main position. This leaves you protected against a crash while still able to make money on the upside.
I will respond to this by posting a shitpost from reddit. In reality the market can never be perfectly efficient or their would be no room for profit.
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
The problem is, with automated trades set up by many institutional firms, any dip in the market will trigger automatic buys keeping the market artificially up even when the underlying securities might be inflated. It'll take more downward momentum on S&P stocks to really push the market down.
Hopefully it gets housing/real estate as well because I'd really like to buy a house in the next ten years.
In times of economic upheaval/resets, labour does not find bargains, capital does.
Housing prices might take a hit, but by the time they pop up on the open market, you won't be buying from a distressed seller, but rather a numbered corporation domiciled in Delaware that's picked up all those properties in cash, cheap.
How are you planning to buy a house without cashing out stock investments?
Comments like these help remind me a large fraction of this website lives in an alternative reality.
Why? Where else would the money for the down payment come from? People don't keep tens of thousands in their checking accounts.
Usually people save money in a savings account.
Future homeowners don't. I suspect there is a pretty strong correlation between people who invest their money and those who buy houses.
It is hard to imagine anyone affording a a mortgage if their savings are rotting away at 5% less than inflation.
Yes, there are savings and money market accounts for that sort of thing.
Silicon Valley brain is real, folks
I thought about saying something snarky, but suffice to say I don't think that socks are a silicon valley invention, and I think you are at a major disadvantage to more flexible/savvy investors.
https://www.wealthfront.com/blog/invest-when-rates-rise/
if everyone's expecting a market crash and prepared for it (that means it should already be priced in), how can there still end up being a crash? seems counter intuitive.
It becomes self-fulfilling, no? Like a bank run started by a rumor.
More money flowing away from the market into safe(r) investments than flowing in causes valuations to plummet.
Not everyone's expecting one.
for every option bought someone is on the other side issuing the options.
You know how risk is "priced in" right? It's an art, not a science. They buy/sell financial instruments to hedge that risk, like collateralized bonds or credit default swaps. Plenty of people lose big money when these bets don't work out.
Not everyone. The options markets are much thinner than the stock market as a whole; it takes fewer people to move them.
Also, it costs much less to buy an out-of-the-money option than the value of the option. You can buy cheap insurance against catastrophe, and not unwind your main position. This leaves you protected against a crash while still able to make money on the upside.
[dead]
I will respond to this by posting a shitpost from reddit. In reality the market can never be perfectly efficient or their would be no room for profit.
Don't even ask the question. The answer is yes, it's priced in. Think Amazon will beat the next earnings? That's already been priced in. You work at the drive thru for Mickey D's and found out that the burgers are made of human meat? Priced in. You think insiders don't already know that? The market is an all powerful, all encompassing being that knows the very inner workings of your subconscious before you were even born. Your very existence was priced in decades ago when the market was valuing Standard Oil's expected future earnings based on population growth that would lead to your birth, what age you would get a car, how many times you would drive your car every week, how many times you take the bus/train, etc. Anything you can think of has already been priced in, even the things you aren't thinking of. You have no original thoughts. Your consciousness is just an illusion, a product of the omniscent market. Free will is a myth. The market sees all, knows all and will be there from the beginning of time until the end of the universe (the market has already priced in the heat death of the universe). So please, before you make a post on wsb asking whether AAPL has priced in earpods 11 sales or whatever, know that it has already been priced in and don't ask such a dumb fucking question again.
Love it. I know it's satire, but I call the real thing the "efficient markets fundamentalism". For some people really is blind faith.
vix ticker graph was higher on 3 other dates during last year. In two cases it was very much higher: 40 vs current 24.
The problem is, with automated trades set up by many institutional firms, any dip in the market will trigger automatic buys keeping the market artificially up even when the underlying securities might be inflated. It'll take more downward momentum on S&P stocks to really push the market down.
Turns out asset-light GenZ likes Trump quite a bit: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-approval-rating-genz-p...
Good and that is fantastic news. We are due for a proper market crash.
Feels kinda refreshing at this point.